arXiv:2611.14736v1 Announce Type: new
Abstract: Observational causal discovery often leaves causal di- rections unresolved or unstable. Large language mod- els (LLMs) can provide semantic information to resolve these directions, but incorrect proposals can exclude the true causal graph and invalidate downstream inference. We study three separate decisions: where to allocate semantic queries, which proposals to admit, and which causal graphs to retain. Our framework distinguishes population non-identifiability from finite-sample insta- bility, evaluates semantic orientation against statistical and random controls, and examines calibrated admis- sion and error-tolerant DAG retention. Experiments across benchmark networks show that semantic infor- mation improves recovery over coin-flip orientations, but targeting unstable edges has no established ad- vantage over matched-random allocation. The tested admission certificate cannot support nontrivial admis- sion with the available calibration tasks. Moreover, downstream retention depends on reference adequacy: learned references contain the true DAG in only three of 80 planned tasks. These findings separate the value of semantic information from the reliability of its alloca- tion, admission, and retention, and identify calibration size and reference adequacy as key limitations.
Abstract: Observational causal discovery often leaves causal di- rections unresolved or unstable. Large language mod- els (LLMs) can provide semantic information to resolve these directions, but incorrect proposals can exclude the true causal graph and invalidate downstream inference. We study three separate decisions: where to allocate semantic queries, which proposals to admit, and which causal graphs to retain. Our framework distinguishes population non-identifiability from finite-sample insta- bility, evaluates semantic orientation against statistical and random controls, and examines calibrated admis- sion and error-tolerant DAG retention. Experiments across benchmark networks show that semantic infor- mation improves recovery over coin-flip orientations, but targeting unstable edges has no established ad- vantage over matched-random allocation. The tested admission certificate cannot support nontrivial admis- sion with the available calibration tasks. Moreover, downstream retention depends on reference adequacy: learned references contain the true DAG in only three of 80 planned tasks. These findings separate the value of semantic information from the reliability of its alloca- tion, admission, and retention, and identify calibration size and reference adequacy as key limitations.
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