arXiv:2611.12379v1 Announce Type: new
Abstract: Micro-scale air quality models require hourly traffic data on every road segment, whereas permanent counters cover only a small part of the network. A graph neural network (GNN) was developed to reconstruct hourly traffic flows on the 32,163 road segments of Paris intra-muros from the 1,573 segments equipped with a counter (4.9%). The model adapts the Graph Neural Network for Urban Interpolation (GNNUI) to a real, sparse counting network. Flows are decoded on the edges of the junction graph (one edge per segment, both directions summed), a traffic climatology serves as an offset in a zero-inflated negative-binomial likelihood, and training proceeds by masking counters. Eight-fold spatial cross-validation, with counters sharing a published series merged before splitting, distinguishes interpolation at a withheld counter in an instrumented district (R${}^2$ = 0.89, error of a quarter of the mean flow) from extrapolation to a district without counters (R${}^2$ = 0.74, a third of the mean flow). These scores hold on main axes where counters are located, while relative errors are about 50% on the few counted local streets. Ablations show that the climatology offset tends to help extrapolation. Road attributes, time cycles and the live state of the counting network matter most, while weather inputs have no significant effect. The masking rate is the only inherited hyperparameter with a clear effect. When evaluated on January–August 2026 (outside the training period), the frozen model stayed around the error band of previous years.
Abstract: Micro-scale air quality models require hourly traffic data on every road segment, whereas permanent counters cover only a small part of the network. A graph neural network (GNN) was developed to reconstruct hourly traffic flows on the 32,163 road segments of Paris intra-muros from the 1,573 segments equipped with a counter (4.9%). The model adapts the Graph Neural Network for Urban Interpolation (GNNUI) to a real, sparse counting network. Flows are decoded on the edges of the junction graph (one edge per segment, both directions summed), a traffic climatology serves as an offset in a zero-inflated negative-binomial likelihood, and training proceeds by masking counters. Eight-fold spatial cross-validation, with counters sharing a published series merged before splitting, distinguishes interpolation at a withheld counter in an instrumented district (R${}^2$ = 0.89, error of a quarter of the mean flow) from extrapolation to a district without counters (R${}^2$ = 0.74, a third of the mean flow). These scores hold on main axes where counters are located, while relative errors are about 50% on the few counted local streets. Ablations show that the climatology offset tends to help extrapolation. Road attributes, time cycles and the live state of the counting network matter most, while weather inputs have no significant effect. The masking rate is the only inherited hyperparameter with a clear effect. When evaluated on January–August 2026 (outside the training period), the frozen model stayed around the error band of previous years.
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