arXiv:2609.15035v1 Announce Type: new
Abstract: Short-term photovoltaic power forecasting requires models to represent regular solar cycles and weather-driven fluctuations whose importance changes with the forecast horizon. This study develops a hierarchical ensemble that combines temporal neural models, historical analogs, state climatology, and gradient-boosted trees. Solar geometry and numerical weather forecasts describe the expected generation conditions, while horizon-specific convex weights combine complementary predictions. A separate calibration step uses available historical forecast errors to account for recent bias. The framework is evaluated on public PVDAQ data at 15–240-minute horizons and on three GEFCom2014 solar zones at hourly horizons up to four hours. On PVDAQ, the ensemble achieves a daylight capacity-normalized mean absolute error of 4.315%, reducing error by 4.11% relative to full-feature LightGBM and by 6.03% relative to fine-tuned Chronos-2 under identical calibration. Expert-removal experiments identify redundancy within the ensemble. Across three training seeds on GEFCom2014, learned fusion improves upon equal weighting but performs comparably to LightGBM. The results support horizon-specific combination as a useful forecasting strategy while showing that its advantage over strong individual models depends on the dataset and evaluation period.
Abstract: Short-term photovoltaic power forecasting requires models to represent regular solar cycles and weather-driven fluctuations whose importance changes with the forecast horizon. This study develops a hierarchical ensemble that combines temporal neural models, historical analogs, state climatology, and gradient-boosted trees. Solar geometry and numerical weather forecasts describe the expected generation conditions, while horizon-specific convex weights combine complementary predictions. A separate calibration step uses available historical forecast errors to account for recent bias. The framework is evaluated on public PVDAQ data at 15–240-minute horizons and on three GEFCom2014 solar zones at hourly horizons up to four hours. On PVDAQ, the ensemble achieves a daylight capacity-normalized mean absolute error of 4.315%, reducing error by 4.11% relative to full-feature LightGBM and by 6.03% relative to fine-tuned Chronos-2 under identical calibration. Expert-removal experiments identify redundancy within the ensemble. Across three training seeds on GEFCom2014, learned fusion improves upon equal weighting but performs comparably to LightGBM. The results support horizon-specific combination as a useful forecasting strategy while showing that its advantage over strong individual models depends on the dataset and evaluation period.
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