arXiv:2611.07520v1 Announce Type: new
Abstract: Uncertainty in resource reopening times complicates train holding and rerouting decisions when resource closures coincide with arrival delays and processing-time extensions. We develop a rolling-horizon distributionally robust model that updates predictions of the remaining closure duration as observations of disruption resolution become available. The model jointly optimizes train routes, sequences, and timings. It minimizes the worst-case expected total completion delay over an ambiguity set of scenario probabilities. The solution algorithm, GNN-LBBD, uses logic-based Benders decomposition to coordinate routing and resource scheduling. Conditional cuts are constructed from resource-use patterns, and a graph neural network guides the order in which resource relaxation subproblems are solved. Across 28 test instances for a five-track station, GNN-LBBD achieved a mean total completion delay of 61.13 train-min. This was 16.63\% lower than tabu search and 20.06\% lower than variable neighborhood search, with a mean total computation time close to that of tabu search. Information comparisons on six representative instances showed that using observations of disruption resolution reduced mean total completion delay by approximately 21.7\%. Scenario-based and conditional-mean predictions produced similar overall results under the same information conditions. The benefits of information were more pronounced in some instances with alternative routes. This suggests a relationship between the use of observations, the station resource structure, and the scope for schedule adjustments.
Abstract: Uncertainty in resource reopening times complicates train holding and rerouting decisions when resource closures coincide with arrival delays and processing-time extensions. We develop a rolling-horizon distributionally robust model that updates predictions of the remaining closure duration as observations of disruption resolution become available. The model jointly optimizes train routes, sequences, and timings. It minimizes the worst-case expected total completion delay over an ambiguity set of scenario probabilities. The solution algorithm, GNN-LBBD, uses logic-based Benders decomposition to coordinate routing and resource scheduling. Conditional cuts are constructed from resource-use patterns, and a graph neural network guides the order in which resource relaxation subproblems are solved. Across 28 test instances for a five-track station, GNN-LBBD achieved a mean total completion delay of 61.13 train-min. This was 16.63\% lower than tabu search and 20.06\% lower than variable neighborhood search, with a mean total computation time close to that of tabu search. Information comparisons on six representative instances showed that using observations of disruption resolution reduced mean total completion delay by approximately 21.7\%. Scenario-based and conditional-mean predictions produced similar overall results under the same information conditions. The benefits of information were more pronounced in some instances with alternative routes. This suggests a relationship between the use of observations, the station resource structure, and the scope for schedule adjustments.
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