arXiv:2609.15015v1 Announce Type: new
Abstract: Synthetic perturbations appear to offer inexpensive calibration data for LLM evaluators in biomedical ML, where expert review is scarce. Yet a planted mutation key is neither a detector output nor automatically human ground truth. We formalize four distinct ledgers: planted perturbations, independent detector outputs, source-linked human dispositions, and human-added discoveries. We then audit the evaluation design, scoring code, read paths, and current human records of a private synthetic Japanese care-handoff workflow. The factory stored 69 planted error cards across 47 targets. Final review covers 22 targets and contains 22 confirmed imported proposals, 9 rejected proposals, and 79 human-added cards; only 3 reviewed targets are double annotated. Passing imported plant keys to a generic detector scorer yields 22/(22+9)=0.710 and 22/(22+79)=0.218. A direct audit identity shows that these values are proposal-confirmation yield and submitted-ledger composition, not judge precision and recall, because no independent detector realization was preserved for the audited proposals in the available records. The audit also finds source-name collisions, row shadowing, forced severity, vacuous ratio defaults, and unsupported zero-support field weights. We contribute a provenance-aware claim audit, a storage contract, and a minimum calibration gate for responsibly communicating biomedical ML capability claims. This single-workflow forensic case is an existence proof of a failure mode, not an estimate of its prevalence: existing human work supports an exploratory audit of synthetic proposals, but not LLM-judge operating characteristics, clinical validity, corpus prevalence, or robust inter-annotator agreement.
Abstract: Synthetic perturbations appear to offer inexpensive calibration data for LLM evaluators in biomedical ML, where expert review is scarce. Yet a planted mutation key is neither a detector output nor automatically human ground truth. We formalize four distinct ledgers: planted perturbations, independent detector outputs, source-linked human dispositions, and human-added discoveries. We then audit the evaluation design, scoring code, read paths, and current human records of a private synthetic Japanese care-handoff workflow. The factory stored 69 planted error cards across 47 targets. Final review covers 22 targets and contains 22 confirmed imported proposals, 9 rejected proposals, and 79 human-added cards; only 3 reviewed targets are double annotated. Passing imported plant keys to a generic detector scorer yields 22/(22+9)=0.710 and 22/(22+79)=0.218. A direct audit identity shows that these values are proposal-confirmation yield and submitted-ledger composition, not judge precision and recall, because no independent detector realization was preserved for the audited proposals in the available records. The audit also finds source-name collisions, row shadowing, forced severity, vacuous ratio defaults, and unsupported zero-support field weights. We contribute a provenance-aware claim audit, a storage contract, and a minimum calibration gate for responsibly communicating biomedical ML capability claims. This single-workflow forensic case is an existence proof of a failure mode, not an estimate of its prevalence: existing human work supports an exploratory audit of synthetic proposals, but not LLM-judge operating characteristics, clinical validity, corpus prevalence, or robust inter-annotator agreement.
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