arXiv:2610.06985v1 Announce Type: cross
Abstract: Atomistic foundation models triage millions of hypothetical materials but are used as slow simulators, their thresholded energies taken at face value. They are better read as fast decision-makers. CrystalJev queries a frozen interatomic potential once per unrelaxed structure and answers typed questions with calibrated probabilities, finite-sample guarantees and a rule for when to think slowly. Across 65 Matbench Discovery models, a 'stable' call is a probability in disguise, explained by a model's errors and the candidate population. Once trained, one forward pass decides nearly as well as a relaxation at a thirtieth of its cost, and a value-of-information theory sends slower computation only where decisions can change. The same layer answers electronic, mechanical and molecular questions. In a registered prospective test with 700 new density-functional calculations, single-pass forecasts calibrated only on existing data over-stated the stable fraction of unseen candidates (5.8%) by at most 2.1 percentage points.
Abstract: Atomistic foundation models triage millions of hypothetical materials but are used as slow simulators, their thresholded energies taken at face value. They are better read as fast decision-makers. CrystalJev queries a frozen interatomic potential once per unrelaxed structure and answers typed questions with calibrated probabilities, finite-sample guarantees and a rule for when to think slowly. Across 65 Matbench Discovery models, a 'stable' call is a probability in disguise, explained by a model's errors and the candidate population. Once trained, one forward pass decides nearly as well as a relaxation at a thirtieth of its cost, and a value-of-information theory sends slower computation only where decisions can change. The same layer answers electronic, mechanical and molecular questions. In a registered prospective test with 700 new density-functional calculations, single-pass forecasts calibrated only on existing data over-stated the stable fraction of unseen candidates (5.8%) by at most 2.1 percentage points.
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