arXiv:2608.20841v1 Announce Type: new
Abstract: This paper investigates the development of causal foundation models for bounding the effect of interventions and counterfactuals from observational data. We show that a canonical prior can be defined with full support over the space of structural causal models with discrete observables. With this canonical prior, we translate the problem of bounding counterfactuals into that of learning distributions over functions that map data (and possibly structural assumptions) to a causal query of interest. This extends the promising causal foundational modelling paradigm to the estimation of partially-identifiable causal effects, i.e., under unobserved confounding, where multiple values are equally compatible with the observed data and prior structural assumptions.
Abstract: This paper investigates the development of causal foundation models for bounding the effect of interventions and counterfactuals from observational data. We show that a canonical prior can be defined with full support over the space of structural causal models with discrete observables. With this canonical prior, we translate the problem of bounding counterfactuals into that of learning distributions over functions that map data (and possibly structural assumptions) to a causal query of interest. This extends the promising causal foundational modelling paradigm to the estimation of partially-identifiable causal effects, i.e., under unobserved confounding, where multiple values are equally compatible with the observed data and prior structural assumptions.
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