arXiv:2608.17625v1 Announce Type: new
Abstract: Saudi Arabia will host the 2034 FIFA World Cup and already operates crowd management at Hajj scale. Drone-based counting must hold accuracy on footage unlike anything in its training corpus, without labels, and must warn of dangerous inflow before a crush forms. We deliver a validated answer built on 525 controlled runs, a full-resolution corpus study, five falsification ablations, and a five-condition safety-interlock evaluation. Label-free adaptation recovers 31-49% of shift-induced error across four corruptions and five severities, with the strongest method gaining 41.8 MAE over the frozen source (95% CI [34.1, 49.6], p=7.5×10^-10, d=2.52). We establish a severity law separating methods with a constant absolute margin from the one whose margin grows, and a stability budget identifying which configuration is safe to fly. On a full-resolution corpus carrying a genuine +48 MAE aerial gap (source retrained to 14.6 validation MAE, a 34% improvement), adaptation repairs the dense-scene undercounting that would otherwise under-report a forming crush, and the flux-based risk module fires on real congestion episodes in 2 of 6 full-length clips. We localise the recoverable error: in a regime built to favor a physics-informed conservation prior (300-frame clips at 200ms spacing, five times wider than standard), the adaptation signal is normalisation-driven, not flow-driven; the continuity residual is invariant to the proportional counting errors domain shift produces, confirmed by four on/off ablations correlated at r=0.999 and a 40% input corruption moving accuracy by only 0.05 MAE. A label-free shift gate shows shift magnitude and accuracy damage are rank-independent (Spearman rho=0.20; rho=-0.60 among genuine shifts), quantifying the 58% of headroom a magnitude gate forgoes. We establish unconditional adaptation with tail monitoring as policy, closing with a six-point protocol.
Abstract: Saudi Arabia will host the 2034 FIFA World Cup and already operates crowd management at Hajj scale. Drone-based counting must hold accuracy on footage unlike anything in its training corpus, without labels, and must warn of dangerous inflow before a crush forms. We deliver a validated answer built on 525 controlled runs, a full-resolution corpus study, five falsification ablations, and a five-condition safety-interlock evaluation. Label-free adaptation recovers 31-49% of shift-induced error across four corruptions and five severities, with the strongest method gaining 41.8 MAE over the frozen source (95% CI [34.1, 49.6], p=7.5×10^-10, d=2.52). We establish a severity law separating methods with a constant absolute margin from the one whose margin grows, and a stability budget identifying which configuration is safe to fly. On a full-resolution corpus carrying a genuine +48 MAE aerial gap (source retrained to 14.6 validation MAE, a 34% improvement), adaptation repairs the dense-scene undercounting that would otherwise under-report a forming crush, and the flux-based risk module fires on real congestion episodes in 2 of 6 full-length clips. We localise the recoverable error: in a regime built to favor a physics-informed conservation prior (300-frame clips at 200ms spacing, five times wider than standard), the adaptation signal is normalisation-driven, not flow-driven; the continuity residual is invariant to the proportional counting errors domain shift produces, confirmed by four on/off ablations correlated at r=0.999 and a 40% input corruption moving accuracy by only 0.05 MAE. A label-free shift gate shows shift magnitude and accuracy damage are rank-independent (Spearman rho=0.20; rho=-0.60 among genuine shifts), quantifying the 58% of headroom a magnitude gate forgoes. We establish unconditional adaptation with tail monitoring as policy, closing with a six-point protocol.
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