arXiv:2610.21128v1 Announce Type: cross
Abstract: Label-free evaluation methods, such as self-consistency filtering, majority-vote aggregation, and agreement-based reliability scoring, rely on an implicit assumption that consistency can serve as a proxy for correctness when ground-truth labels are unavailable or expensive to obtain. In this paper, we test this assumption directly. Using four financial QA datasets (multiple-choice and free-form), ten consistency dimensions, and two frontier model families, we measure the joint distribution of consistency and accuracy at the level of individual examples rather than in aggregate. We find that 60% of all incorrect answers fall in the high-consistency region (consistency $\geq$ 0.8), and that 77.7% of these show complete answer collapse, i.e. identical wrong answers across all perturbation variants. This high-consistency/incorrect quadrant cannot be detected by any evaluation signal that is built on agreement alone, as the model appears maximally reliable while being wrong. We show that the phenomenon is robust to the choice of consistency threshold t (it persists from t=0.50 to t=1.00), is shared across model families, and is concentrated in specific intersections of perturbation dimension and domain. We map where this quadrant occurs, analyze its stability properties, and discuss the implications for evaluation pipelines that use agreement-based signals in place of human labels.
Abstract: Label-free evaluation methods, such as self-consistency filtering, majority-vote aggregation, and agreement-based reliability scoring, rely on an implicit assumption that consistency can serve as a proxy for correctness when ground-truth labels are unavailable or expensive to obtain. In this paper, we test this assumption directly. Using four financial QA datasets (multiple-choice and free-form), ten consistency dimensions, and two frontier model families, we measure the joint distribution of consistency and accuracy at the level of individual examples rather than in aggregate. We find that 60% of all incorrect answers fall in the high-consistency region (consistency $\geq$ 0.8), and that 77.7% of these show complete answer collapse, i.e. identical wrong answers across all perturbation variants. This high-consistency/incorrect quadrant cannot be detected by any evaluation signal that is built on agreement alone, as the model appears maximally reliable while being wrong. We show that the phenomenon is robust to the choice of consistency threshold t (it persists from t=0.50 to t=1.00), is shared across model families, and is concentrated in specific intersections of perturbation dimension and domain. We map where this quadrant occurs, analyze its stability properties, and discuss the implications for evaluation pipelines that use agreement-based signals in place of human labels.
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