From the Fluency Fallacy to the Micro-to-Macro Validity Gap: Opportunities and Pitfalls of LLMs in Social Simulation

arXiv:2507.19364v4 Announce Type: replace
Abstract: The integration of Large Language Models (LLMs) into social simulation has generated enthusiasm but also raises methodological and epistemological challenges. This critical review examines LLMs as cognitive or decision-making components of simulated agents from a computational social science perspective. We argue that their behavioral and epistemic limitations can become systemic vulnerabilities when scaled to multi-agent societies. We map the evolving landscape of LLM-driven platforms, from narrative sandboxes to population-scale simulations, and develop a framework for analyzing the Micro-to-Macro Validity Gap: the propagation, amplification, or contraction of micro-level limitations-including hallucinations, stochastic inconsistency, representational biases, and alignment effects-into agent-level distortions (e.g., persona convergence) and macro-level risks (e.g., artificial consensus and behavioral homogenization). We also highlight evaluative vulnerabilities such as the Fluency Fallacy and automation bias. We identify contexts where LLM-based agents offer operational value, including serious games, participatory environments, and exploratory modeling, distinguishing these uses from confirmatory research with unconstrained models and precise social forecasting. Finally, we examine theory-driven hybrid architectures embedding LLMs in explicit, mechanistic, and reproducible Agent-Based Modeling (ABM) frameworks. While promising, these architectures do not guarantee epistemic control: validity requires multi-level evaluation of environmental dynamics, individual behavior, cross-level interactions, and aggregate outcomes. They also remain vulnerable to physics washing.

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