Abstract: Deepfake detectors remain vulnerable to transfer-based black-box attacks, in which adversarial examples are generated on a source surrogate model and transferred to a target model, unknown to the attacker. Yet how source–target compatibility shapes attack success remains poorly understood. Prior studies evaluate limited detector pools and rarely disentangle architectural from training factors. We conduct a controlled evaluation of adversarial transferability across 60 detectors spanning six backbones, two pretraining regimes, and five training-data configurations, using two attack procedures: AutoAttack (AA) and the Carlini–Wagner attack with Expectation over Transformation (CW–EOT). Matched comparisons reveal significantly higher transfer when source and target share an exact backbone, architecture family, pretraining regime, or training data. This compatibility structure is attack-dependent: exact backbone compatibility has the largest effect under AA, whereas shared pretraining and training data have the largest effects under CW–EOT. When transfer is averaged across non-target sources, mean attack success rate (ASR) is $7.21\%$ under AA and $19.52\%$ under CW–EOT. By contrast, a multi-source oracle combining both attacks attains a \(64.48\%\) mean ASR after excluding exact backbone and training-data matches, showing that source averaging can substantially understate target vulnerability. We release 240,000 adversarially perturbed images, complete pairwise transfer results, detector configurations, and evaluation code. These findings establish source–target compatibility and source-model selection as central dimensions of credible transfer-based black-box robustness evaluation.
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