arXiv:2609.05834v1 Announce Type: new
Abstract: World models promise a general route to embodied intelligence: learn predictive dynamics once, then reason, plan, and act with them. Increasingly, the representations beneath such models are pretrained on large-scale video, interaction, and multimodal corpora, which raises a question prediction quality alone cannot answer: when is a learned representation actually actionable? We identify a failure mode we call counterfactual collapse: a model predicts visually plausible futures while failing to distinguish interventions with different behavioral consequences. This arises whenever a representation is optimized for perceptual similarity rather than intervention structure, which is precisely the objective under which most large-scale pretrained encoders are learned. We introduce Counterfactual Latent World Models (CLWM), which combine a recurrent belief-state encoder, action-conditioned latent dynamics, and a contrastive counterfactual objective that separates futures induced by distinct interventions even when their observations look alike. Across occluded manipulation, aliased navigation, and long-horizon manipulation, CLWM improves planning success over the strongest baseline (65.1% $\to$ 74.6% on Occluded Push and 67.3% $\to$ 78.9% on Aliased Maze) and reduces exploitative planning failures (18.4% $\to$ 9.7% on Deferred Kitchen), with ablations attributing the gains to hard counterfactual negatives, especially perceptual-alias negatives. Finally, our counterfactual separability metric, which tracks planning success across the five baseline model classes ($r \ge 0.94$), is representation-agnostic: given intervention-outcome labels, it can audit any encoder, pretrained or trained from scratch, before a planner trusts it. We do not yet measure it on large-scale pretrained encoders. Here we establish the metric and its relationship to planning success for world models trained from scratch.
Abstract: World models promise a general route to embodied intelligence: learn predictive dynamics once, then reason, plan, and act with them. Increasingly, the representations beneath such models are pretrained on large-scale video, interaction, and multimodal corpora, which raises a question prediction quality alone cannot answer: when is a learned representation actually actionable? We identify a failure mode we call counterfactual collapse: a model predicts visually plausible futures while failing to distinguish interventions with different behavioral consequences. This arises whenever a representation is optimized for perceptual similarity rather than intervention structure, which is precisely the objective under which most large-scale pretrained encoders are learned. We introduce Counterfactual Latent World Models (CLWM), which combine a recurrent belief-state encoder, action-conditioned latent dynamics, and a contrastive counterfactual objective that separates futures induced by distinct interventions even when their observations look alike. Across occluded manipulation, aliased navigation, and long-horizon manipulation, CLWM improves planning success over the strongest baseline (65.1% $\to$ 74.6% on Occluded Push and 67.3% $\to$ 78.9% on Aliased Maze) and reduces exploitative planning failures (18.4% $\to$ 9.7% on Deferred Kitchen), with ablations attributing the gains to hard counterfactual negatives, especially perceptual-alias negatives. Finally, our counterfactual separability metric, which tracks planning success across the five baseline model classes ($r \ge 0.94$), is representation-agnostic: given intervention-outcome labels, it can audit any encoder, pretrained or trained from scratch, before a planner trusts it. We do not yet measure it on large-scale pretrained encoders. Here we establish the metric and its relationship to planning success for world models trained from scratch.
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